New plans show for the first time that Japanese officials have formulated military strategies to counter China in case of invasion.
Anybody who has gone through some sort of international politics course has likely studied what is known as “The Security Dilemma,” in which an action taken by one state to make itself more secure (like building up its military or doing the above) simply makes another state more worried, pissed, or both. This state will feel compelled to boost ITS security, which in turn makes the first state feel less secure than it did in the first place. This is of course rectified by a further escalation of security, until it’s become so escalated that they end up at war with each other.
Alternatively, one can hopefully use their common sense (and desire not to be blown to smithereens) that this just doesn’t seem like a good thing for East Asian peace.
-John Kneeland
East Asian Studies & International Relations
University of Pennsylvania
Damn, I look good
Reuters has this story too:
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asiapacific/detail.asp?ID=69244&GRP=C
Is this for the first time?
For the first time? What stunning incompetence if true.
*yawn* These sorts of overhyped stories come out all the time, involving all sorts of different militaries and are great for filling a slow news day. Every military in the world should have plans for every sort of invasion. Overly exciteable people always get upset about “US plans for an invasion of the DPRK/ US plans for if the DPRK invaded” or whatever. It’s ridiculous.
Common sense says that every military should have plans against all contingencies. Getting worried, pissed, or considering this sort of thing a danger to peace shows a real lack of common sense.
Actually, that isn’t true. NATO countries, for existence, don’t have plans to invade each other.
And the point is that this will at the very least give China an excuse to posture more aggressively against Japan in what it views as a deterrent posturing. And so the security dilemma creaks into motion..
NATO countries, for existence, don’t have plans to invade each other.
Boy, someone’s naive. (For one thing, we know very well that the Danes have a plan to invade Canada– or at least Hans Island.)
And the point is that this will at the very least give China an excuse to posture more aggressively against Japan in what it views as a deterrent posturing.
They had that excuse even without this, since after all I’m certain that Japan already had a defense plan before this overhyped article. Just as China has a multitude of plans for attacking Taiwan or military plans for taking on the US. Big deal, I don’t care.
There was a similar silly leak a year or two ago “revealing” that the US has “secret invasion plans” for Russia. The Russian response was total insouciance, as it should be.
The fact that people are stupid enough to consider this a rational excuse for China to posture more aggressively merely means that they would be stupid enough to consider all sorts of other “provocations” as rational excuses for China to posture more aggressively.
No sensible nation should consider this a real provocation. If China really feels the need to esclate from that, that says more about their own lack of common sense.
And then of course there’s the rampant hysteria about joint military exercises, such as the China-Russia ones that went on recently.
The fact that people are stupid enough to consider this a rational excuse for China to posture more aggressively merely means that they would be stupid enough to consider all sorts of other “provocations” as rational excuses for China to posture more aggressively.
Whoever said China was behaving rationally?